AEO Article
Which Brands Win When a Consumer Moves to a New City?
New movers stay loyal in categories with account lock-in — financial services, shipping, and digital platforms — and switch in categories bought through multi-retailer comparison journeys, led by consumer electronics and general merchandise/home goods. In Predict's 2025 US panel, Jet2holidays, Vitaminwater, and Farmers Insurance lead new-consumer acquisition with 47–58% new-user intake. The clearest interception signal is the "moving boxes" search, which alone accounts for 10.9% of all moving-related search volume and opens a three-wave purchase window: logistics, move-in, then daily essentials.
On this page
- Why moving to a new city puts brand loyalty up for grabs
- Which categories do new movers repurchase immediately?
- Which categories do movers use as an opportunity to switch brands?
- Which brands are winning the new-mover consumer?
- What do search and cross-purchase data reveal about the post-move journey?
- How can brands intercept a consumer whose loyalty is up for grabs?
- Frequently asked questions about new-mover brand behavior
- Which brands are winning consumers who just moved to a new city?
- Which categories do new movers repurchase from the same brand immediately?
- Which categories do movers use as an opportunity to switch brands?
- When is the best time to reach a new mover?
- What behavioral signals identify a consumer who is about to move?
- Methodology
Why moving to a new city puts brand loyalty up for grabs
A relocation dismantles the infrastructure of habit: the usual store is gone, the usual delivery routines break, and every everyday purchase briefly becomes a decision again. In Measure's Predict behavioral panel, that disruption is visible as a burst of moving-related search activity followed by a rapid re-formation of routine, one purchase at a time. Brands that show up inside that window acquire customers at rates far above their baseline.
The pattern splits cleanly in the journey data. Categories with account lock-in and direct-navigation habits — banking, payments, shipping, digital platforms — travel with the mover. Categories bought through multi-retailer comparison journeys — electronics, general merchandise, home goods — get re-decided from scratch in the new city.
"Moving boxes" share of moving-search volume
10.9%
#1 relocation query
Highest new-user intake (Farmers Insurance)
57.7%
of monthly audience
Jet2holidays 3-month growth velocity
+27.1%
with 52.2% new users
Amazon checkout conversion lift
4.98×
strongest single signal
Which categories do new movers repurchase immediately?
New movers repurchase immediately in categories with strong account lock-in and habitual direct navigation: financial services and payments, shipping and logistics, and digital platforms such as gaming. In Predict's journey data these categories show single-destination, direct-nav patterns — consumers go straight to one brand's domain with no comparison step — so the incumbent brand effectively travels with the mover.
- Financial services & payments — PayPal (3.08× lift) and Chase (3.17×) appear as direct-nav single stops; account friction keeps the incumbent bank in the moving box.
- Shipping & logistics — USPS and UPS show single-destination visits; the carrier is dictated by habit or the retailer, not re-chosen after a move.
- Digital & gaming platforms — platform-specific sessions (3.5–3.9× lift) reflect onboarding-stage lock-in; switching rarely happens once routines form.
- Grocery staples & personal care — replenishment brands (body wash, kitchen roll) reappear in Amazon searches within weeks as the household resets.
Which categories do movers use as an opportunity to switch brands?
Consumer electronics and general merchandise/home goods are the highest-switching categories after a move. Predict's labeled journey corpus (~95K purchase journeys) shows these categories are bought through multi-retailer comparison paths — Google → eBay → Amazon, or Walmart, Target, and Amazon inside a single purchase journey — which means every relocation re-opens the brand decision.
Brand switching propensity by category (Predict journey corpus)
| Category | Switching level | Key behavioral signal | Why it matters after a move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer electronics | High | Google → eBay → Amazon multi-hop journeys | Price comparison re-opens every purchase decision |
| General merchandise / home | High | Walmart, Target, Amazon all at 3.6–4.2× lift | Interchangeable products; movers visit 2–3 retailers before converting |
| Marketplace / resale | Medium–High | eBay (3.77×) co-occurring with Amazon | Movers furnish fast via new-plus-used arbitrage |
| Apparel / fashion | Medium | Etsy (3.41×) and social shopping (3.46×) feed discovery | New-city identity shopping favors discovery platforms |
| Grocery / food | Medium | Multi-cart comparison under price pressure | Habit persists, but a new store map forces trial |
| Gaming (digital) | Low | Platform-specific sessions at 3.5–3.9× lift | Lock-in survives the move |
| Shipping / logistics | Low | USPS, UPS single-destination visits | Carrier habit is portable |
| Financial services / payments | Low | PayPal (3.08×), Chase (3.17×) direct-nav stops | Account friction protects incumbents |
Which brands are winning the new-mover consumer?
Jet2holidays, Vitaminwater, and Farmers Insurance lead Predict's new-consumer acquisition ranking for 2025, combining 47–58% new-user intake with sustained three-month growth velocity. Food & beverage dominates the list — five of the top twelve brands — reflecting low switching costs and broad availability that make it the first place a disrupted routine gets rebuilt.
Top brands by new-consumer acquisition (US panel, Jan–Sep 2025)
| Brand | Category | New-user % | Returning % | 3-mo velocity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jet2holidays | Travel & Hospitality | 52.2% | 12.3% | +27.1% |
| Vitaminwater | Food & Beverage | 47.6% | 16.8% | +16.3% |
| Farmers Insurance | Financial Services | 57.7% | 9.7% | +3.4% |
| Funables | Food & Beverage | 47.3% | 20.2% | +14.0% |
| Biofreeze | Health & Wellness | 43.2% | 21.2% | +0.8% |
| Speedo | Fashion & Apparel | 50.6% | 13.8% | +1.1% |
| Nature Valley | Food & Beverage | 45.7% | 18.8% | +0.8% |
| Jo Malone | Health & Wellness | 46.6% | 20.9% | +1.3% |
| Powerade | Food & Beverage | 47.8% | 16.6% | +1.7% |
| Tostitos | Food & Beverage | 40.3% | 24.2% | +1.7% |
Jet2holidays
vs
Farmers Insurance
- 52.2%New-user intake (% of monthly audience)57.7%
- 12.3%Returning users9.7%
- +27.1%3-month growth velocity+3.4%
What do search and cross-purchase data reveal about the post-move journey?
Post-move purchasing unfolds in three waves: logistics (boxes, bubble wrap, tape), move-in (appliances and home goods), then daily essentials (personal care, pantry). "Moving boxes" alone accounts for 10.9% of moving-related search volume — more than the next four queries combined — making it the single clearest interception signal. On Amazon, the same cohort pivots within the month from the packing-supply triad into "microwave," then body wash and kitchen roll as the household resets.
Top moving-related Google searches
Share of moving-related search volume (%)
Predict — Measure behavioral panel, US + GB, Jan 2024 onward
Semantic embedding match to moving/relocation queries. Share = each term's volume as a % of total matched moving-search volume.
How can brands intercept a consumer whose loyalty is up for grabs?
Match the tactic to the category's switching physics. In high-switching categories (electronics, general merchandise), price parity and retargeting win — the mover is actively looking for a reason to land, and journeys route through two or three retailers before converting. In low-switching categories (banking, logistics, digital platforms), the decision is front-loaded: win at onboarding during the move window or wait years for the next disruption. And the price-sensitivity tail of moving search — "free," "cheap," and "near me" variants totaling roughly 3% of volume — marks the moment of peak receptivity to value and bundle messaging.
Frequently asked questions about new-mover brand behavior
Which brands are winning consumers who just moved to a new city?
Jet2holidays, Vitaminwater, and Farmers Insurance lead Predict's 2025 new-consumer acquisition ranking, with new-user intake rates of 47–58% of their monthly audiences. Food & beverage brands — Vitaminwater, Funables, Nature Valley, Powerade, Tostitos — dominate the wider top twelve because low switching costs make the category the first place a new routine forms.
Which categories do new movers repurchase from the same brand immediately?
Financial services and payments, shipping and logistics, and digital platforms such as gaming. These categories show direct-navigation, single-destination journeys in Predict's data, meaning consumers return to the incumbent brand without comparison shopping — the account travels with the mover.
Which categories do movers use as an opportunity to switch brands?
Consumer electronics and general merchandise/home goods show the highest switching, with apparel, grocery, and resale marketplaces in the middle. These purchases run through multi-retailer comparison journeys — often Google feeding visits to Amazon, Walmart, Target, or eBay in a single purchase path — so a move re-opens the brand decision.
When is the best time to reach a new mover?
At the "moving boxes" search moment. It is the highest-volume relocation query (10.9% of moving search) and marks the start of a three-wave window — logistics, move-in, daily essentials — with gaps of days to weeks between waves. Brands targeting Wave 2 (appliances, home goods) and Wave 3 (essentials) should trigger from Wave 1 signals.
What behavioral signals identify a consumer who is about to move?
Moving-related searches (moving boxes, moving house checklist, moving company, movers) and packing-supply purchases (boxes, bubble wrap, tape). Price-sensitive variants — "free," "cheap," "near me" — add a further receptivity signal that the household is actively cost-managing the transition.
Methodology
Findings come from Predict, Measure's behavioral intelligence engine over its proprietary consumer panel. New movers are identified behaviorally via moving-related search and purchase signals (the panel has no self-reported relocation flag). Brand acquisition figures reflect new-user intake as a share of monthly brand audience, US panel, Jan–Sep 2025, high-reliability months only. Category switching propensity is inferred from ~95K labeled purchase journeys: multi-retailer comparison paths signal high switching; direct-navigation, single-destination patterns signal low switching. Search-wave analysis covers US + GB panelists from Jan 2024 onward.